This is a very risky preposition. The forecast should be revisited annually rather than assuming no economic downturn through 2019.
Fiscal Pressures. Given the relatively small budget shortfalls projected by IBO for 2017-2019 and the sizable reserves contained in the Mayor’s financial plan—including general reserves of $1 billion annually and $2.6 billion in the Retiree Health Benefits Trust—the city’s fiscal outlook remains solid. But this outlook presumes no economic downturn through 2019. If that forecast holds the city will have gone an unprecedented 10 years without a recession.
You do have a valuable and significant point, but you seem to have missed the article published by the WSJ.com in which the Speaker is expressing some concerns about the rising pension cost. The diagram is just a starting point which should be reviewed on a annual basis. The bottom line here is that the rising pension cost has the potential of creating a huge dilemma for the City of New York in the near future. At the end of the day, I strongly believe that we are on the same page when it comes to the real health of the economy of the City of New York (most of the assumptions have been made without taking into account any economic downfall which, as you know, it is way too risky).
Your comments are welcome and greatly appreciated.
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