Fiscal Intelligence

Fiscal analysis that enables educators, small business owners, and community organizers to make informed decisions.

Are Colleges in the Northeast Prepared for the New Demographic Reality?

The national picture described above is not great, but it masks important regional trends. In the South, the most populous region in the country, the number of high school graduates in 2027-2028 is projected to be 8 percent larger than it was in 2008-2009. This situation is much more dire for the Northeast, which the report defines as Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. In this region, the number of high-school graduates is expected to decline by 10 percent between 2009 and 2028. This means approximately 65,000 fewer students will be coming through the educational pipeline and moving into higher education, equating to a decline of 77 students per postsecondary institution in the region. (There are 869 postsecondary institutions in the Northeast.) Many higher-education institutions are bound to lose enrollments unless more significant attention is paid to nontraditional students or recruiting students from outside of the region.

Are Colleges in the Northeast Prepared for the New Demographic Reality?.

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City of Yonkers

Enrollment for the dependent Yonkers school district increased by almost 6 percent from fiscal year 2009 to fiscal year 2012, while overall state public school enrollment declined by 0.8 percent. This enrollment increase has added to the pressures on the City’s budget. Assuming the budget gap is filled in part by utilizing fund balance, the City could quickly exhaust its balance. The City is considering possible gap closing measures including increases in the City income tax, property tax and real estate transfer tax, as well as increases in the contribution rates of employee health plans and limiting growth in the school district’s operating costs. The City is also advocating for the reassessment of all properties in Westchester County in the hope that this will save money by reducing the number of tax certiorari claims.

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